A plan to keep carbon in check
- Humanity can emit only so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere be- fore the climate en- ters a state unknown in recent geologic history and goes haywire. Climate sci- entists typically see the risks growing rapidly as CO2 levels approach a doubling of their pre-18th- century value.
- To make the prob- lem manageable, the required reduction in emissions can be broken down into “wedges”—an incre- mental reduction of a size that matches available technology.
- In one fu- ture, the emissions rate continues to grow at the pace of the past 30 years for the next 50 years, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056.
- Holding carbon dioxide emissions constant for 50 years, without choking off economic growth, is within our grasp.
- 39 percent U.S. share of global carbon emissions in 1952
- 23 percent U.S. share in 2002 The U.S. share of global emissions can be expected to continue to drop.
- Oil accounted for 43 percent of glob- al carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2002, while coal accounted for 37 per- cent
- A carbon emis- sions price of $100 per ton is comparable to the current U.S. production credit for new renewable and nuclear energy rela- tive to coal, and it is about half the cur- rent U.S. subsidy of ethanol relative to gasoline.
- Humanity faces a choice between two futures: doing nothing to curb emissions (which poses huge climate risks) and bringing them under control (which has costs but also benefits).
- Getting a grip on greenhouse gases is daunting but doable. The technologies already exist. But there is no time to lose
- Each part per million of CO2 corre- sponds to a total of 2.1 billion tons of atmospheric carbon. Therefore, the 560-ppm level would mean about 1,200 billion tons, up from the current 800 billion tons.
- The difference of 400 billion tons actually allows for roughly 800 billion tons of emissions, because half the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere enters the planet’s oceans and forests. The two concentration trajectories shown here match the two emissions paths at the left.
There are 15 ways to make a wedge
* End-user efficiency and conservation
1. Increase fuel economy of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg
2. Driven two billion cars not 10000 but 5000 miles a year (t 30 mpg)
3. Cut electricity use in homes, offices and stores by 25 percent
* Power generation
4. Raise efficiency at 1600 large coal-fired plants from 40 to 60 percent
5. Replace 1400 large coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants
* Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
6. Install CCS at 800 large coal-fired power plants
7. Install CCS at coal plants that produce hydrogen for 1.5 billion vehicles.
8. Install CCS at coal to syngas plants
* Alternative energy sources
9. Add twice today's nuclear output to displace coal
10. Increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal?
11. Increase solar power 700-fold to displace coal?
12. Increase wind power 80-fold to make hydrogen for cars
13. Drive 2 billion cars on ethanol, using 1/6 of world cropland
* Agriculture and forestry
14. Stop all deforest action
15. Expand conservation tillage 100% of cropland.
Faster and faster, year after year for two centuries, human beings have been transferring carbon to the atmosphere from below the surface of the earth. Today the world's coal, oil and natural gas industries dig up and pump out about seven billion tons of carbon a year, and society burns nearly all of it, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). "What gets us in trouble is not what we don't know ... It's what we know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understand it." - Upton Sinclair. Educate people, practice management, control carbon, conserve the sky, then we all gonna positively change this world.
So what?
- make the changes the world needs
What if?
- we don't keep carbon in check?
Says who?
- BY ROBERT H. SOCOLOW AND STEPHEN W. PACALA
What does this remind me of?
- This remind me of the "carbon control" video
- To make the prob- lem manageable, the required reduction in emissions can be broken down into “wedges”—an incre- mental reduction of a size that matches available technology.
- In one fu- ture, the emissions rate continues to grow at the pace of the past 30 years for the next 50 years, reaching 14 billion tons of carbon a year in 2056.
- Holding carbon dioxide emissions constant for 50 years, without choking off economic growth, is within our grasp.
- 39 percent U.S. share of global carbon emissions in 1952
- 23 percent U.S. share in 2002 The U.S. share of global emissions can be expected to continue to drop.
- Oil accounted for 43 percent of glob- al carbon emissions from fossil fuels in 2002, while coal accounted for 37 per- cent
- A carbon emis- sions price of $100 per ton is comparable to the current U.S. production credit for new renewable and nuclear energy rela- tive to coal, and it is about half the cur- rent U.S. subsidy of ethanol relative to gasoline.
- Humanity faces a choice between two futures: doing nothing to curb emissions (which poses huge climate risks) and bringing them under control (which has costs but also benefits).
- Getting a grip on greenhouse gases is daunting but doable. The technologies already exist. But there is no time to lose
- Each part per million of CO2 corre- sponds to a total of 2.1 billion tons of atmospheric carbon. Therefore, the 560-ppm level would mean about 1,200 billion tons, up from the current 800 billion tons.
- The difference of 400 billion tons actually allows for roughly 800 billion tons of emissions, because half the CO2 emitted into the atmosphere enters the planet’s oceans and forests. The two concentration trajectories shown here match the two emissions paths at the left.
There are 15 ways to make a wedge
* End-user efficiency and conservation
1. Increase fuel economy of 2 billion cars from 30 to 60 mpg
2. Driven two billion cars not 10000 but 5000 miles a year (t 30 mpg)
3. Cut electricity use in homes, offices and stores by 25 percent
* Power generation
4. Raise efficiency at 1600 large coal-fired plants from 40 to 60 percent
5. Replace 1400 large coal-fired plants with gas-fired plants
* Carbon capture and storage (CCS)
6. Install CCS at 800 large coal-fired power plants
7. Install CCS at coal plants that produce hydrogen for 1.5 billion vehicles.
8. Install CCS at coal to syngas plants
* Alternative energy sources
9. Add twice today's nuclear output to displace coal
10. Increase wind power 40-fold to displace coal?
11. Increase solar power 700-fold to displace coal?
12. Increase wind power 80-fold to make hydrogen for cars
13. Drive 2 billion cars on ethanol, using 1/6 of world cropland
* Agriculture and forestry
14. Stop all deforest action
15. Expand conservation tillage 100% of cropland.
Faster and faster, year after year for two centuries, human beings have been transferring carbon to the atmosphere from below the surface of the earth. Today the world's coal, oil and natural gas industries dig up and pump out about seven billion tons of carbon a year, and society burns nearly all of it, releasing carbon dioxide (CO2). "What gets us in trouble is not what we don't know ... It's what we know for sure that just ain't so." - Mark Twain
"It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understand it." - Upton Sinclair. Educate people, practice management, control carbon, conserve the sky, then we all gonna positively change this world.
So what?
- make the changes the world needs
What if?
- we don't keep carbon in check?
Says who?
- BY ROBERT H. SOCOLOW AND STEPHEN W. PACALA
What does this remind me of?
- This remind me of the "carbon control" video